October 9, 2015

‘Tis the Season: Holiday 2015 Retail Forecasting

Seasonal accents are important for holiday 2015 retail marketing strategy.

While we are just getting started on the all-pumpkin-everything binge that is the month of October, the forthcoming holiday season is still in the back of everyone’s mind. Things are looking bright for retailers this season, according to the latest from the National Retail Federation — so sit back, sip your PSL, and check out the holiday 2015 retail forecast with these key takeaways.

Consumer spending is up: The NRF is predicting a 3.7% increase in sales during November & December — a substantial increase over the 10-year average of 2.5%. Our takeaway? Post-recession, many high-ticket items will be back up for grabs during the holiday shopping. Offering additional incentives for significant spending (Free shipping on orders over $100, free gift with $150, etc) might be just what the average consumer needs to pull the trigger on larger items.

Avoiding the lines: The online forecast is also looking positive. NRF expects online sales this holiday season to increase 6-8%, to as much as $105 billion (approximately 3.28% of the entirety of annual 2015 sales). Retailer hint: consider investing more heavily in your email marketing campaign and retargeting tactics this season! Reaching your target consumer has never been this easy: Take advantage of digital marketing tactics to convert ripest audiences.

Competition is key: “Retailers will be competitive not only on price, but on digital initiatives, store hours, product offerings and much more,” says NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. The variability of these factors will play a critical role in shaping consumer experience and spending this season. We see this manifesting itself specifically in brick-and-mortar vs online shopping. With the slow decline of indoor shopping malls, retailers should carefully consider how to boost foot traffic this holiday season, whether by events, in-store only promotions.